Published on the 30/10/2018 | Written by Pat Pilcher

With 54 b-b-b-billion dollars the supposed prize, we’d better…

It is almost impossible to avoid the debate that rages around the pros and cons of artificial intelligence (AI). We get regularly swamped with AI stories that either gloomily predict jobs being gobbled up by intelligent machines or a utopian future where all drudgery gets handled by microprocessors and lines of code.

What has been missing so far is a realistic look at how New Zealand will fare in an AI-driven future. The most comprehensive analysis to date is the AI Forum’s AI: Shaping a future New Zealand report. MBIE along with a range of commercial sponsors funded the research which was compiled by industry group the AI Forum, using research from IDC and economic analysis from the Sapere Research Group. In the 6 months since it was first published the din around AI has not lessened.

It takes a well-reasoned look at the potential impacts of AI in New Zealand, discussing how Kiwis can best benefit from AI as well as making some realistic recommendations on what needs to get done if this is to happen.

The report is optimistic about the employment impacts resulting from the widespread adoption of AI. While it says the influence of AI will be profound, it also says that its general integration into New Zealand society will be gradual. ‘Widespread adoption of AI could take 20-40 years until it is expected to fully impact employment patterns. During that time natural changes in the labour market will be significantly larger than any expected impact from AI and existing labour market support policies should be able to cope.’

That said, the report does indicate that policy settings will need to be adjusted, saying ‘we anticipate significant impacts from technology-related job losses for the individual workers affected. Government and industry must collaborate to maintain support structures for technologically displaced workers, accurately identify roles at risk of displacement and increase investment in the development of new skills as part of a long-term human resource plan for New Zealand’.

Employment impacts aside, the report is anticipating that the economic upsides will be nothing short of staggering. AI is single handedly forecast to contribute a whopping NZ$54 billion to New Zealand’s GDP by 2035 (and that’s in 2015 dollars, GDP is currently around NZ$315 billion). If that materialises, its impacts are likely to be profound, reaching into many aspects of New Zealand society, and wiping any unemployment concerns. Indeed the forecast relies on an assumption that all displaced workers are redeployed into equally valuable roles. Some might say that’s a bold assumption.

‘AI will have major long-term impacts on our business and economy, legal frameworks, ethics, environment, education, labour, productivity, social and justice outcomes.’ Half of the organisations surveyed when compiling the report stated that they ‘think AI will be, or is already, a game changer and will enable transformation of business and society’.

Perhaps the single biggest concern aired by the report isn’t so much to do with employment and economics, but more to do with New Zealand’s lack of preparedness or planning when it comes to AI. According to the report New Zealand’s traditional export earners including agriculture and tourism are starting to show early signs of vulnerability to overseas technology enabled competition and disruption. ‘The challenge is that New Zealand organisations are not taking AI, or the competitive pressure that it will create, seriously.’

Further highlighting the seriousness of the situation, the report mentions the fact that while New Zealand does not have an AI strategy, Canada, China, France, Singapore, South Korea, UAE and UK have already developed multi-million-dollar national AI investment strategies. Equally concerning to the authors is the fact that New Zealand was ranked ninth among 35 OECD countries for Government AI Readiness in 2017 and that ‘adoption of AI by New Zealand Government is disconnected and sparsely deployed’.

So, what does New Zealand need to do if it is to embrace AI and realise its economic benefits? The report pulls no punches, saying that New Zealand needs to ‘decide now how we leverage our existing strengths of agility, trust and innovation to maximise New Zealand’s opportunities and adapt to changes driven by a forthcoming wave of AI-driven developments’.

Ultimately the report’s recommendations cover six key areas. These include the development of an AI strategy for New Zealand, creating broader awareness and discussion of AI, assisting AI adoption, increasing availability/accessibility of trusted data, adapting to AI’s effects on law, ethics and society and growing the AI talent pool.

The last may be the most important if the $54 billion prize is to accrue to NZ interests rather than be siphoned off in favour of the latest AI tech marvel out of Silicon Valley.

And that, we fear, is looking a more likely outcome.