Published on the 26/08/2015 | Written by Newsdesk
The IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker revises expectations of smartphone shipments…
Market watcher IDC has revised its forecast of growth in smartphone shipments in 2015 to 1.44 billion units. While representing growth of 10.4 percent over the previous year, it is lower than the previous smartphone forecast of 11.3 percent.
In 2014, growth in shipments was 27.5 percent.
In a statement, IDC said it ‘expects to see a noticeable slowdown in smartphone shipments in 2015 as China joins North America and Western Europe in a more mature growth pattern’. However, it added that steadily falling average selling prices (ASPs) will fuel steady growth through the end of the forecast period, with global shipments reaching 1.9 billion units in 2019.
IDC noted that China remains the focal point of the global smartphone market in 2015, although results haven’t been as positive as in previous years.
As the largest market for smartphones, China consumed 32.3 percent of all new smartphone shipments in 2014 and its importance remains great even if its growth has begun to slow, with shipments forecast to expand just 1.2 percent year over year in 2015 which is down from 19.7 percent in 2014.
Despite Apple’s continued success with its variants of the iPhone, the story among operating systems is not expected to change throughout the forecast, with Android’s 81 percent share in 2015 carrying forward until 2019.
Markets with the biggest growth opportunity are extremely price sensitive, which IDC believes will not change; it said this is the main reason Apple will be challenged to take Android share throughout the forecast.
Even if Apple were to introduce another low-cost iPhone, IDC believes the price will struggle to compete with Android OEMs that are focused on portfolios aimed at price points of $200 and less. This isn’t to suggest that Apple’s success with the iPhone won’t continue, and IDC believes its efforts to maintain significantly higher margins compared to its competitors are much more valuable than chasing share.
Android shipments globally are expected to grow from 1.06 billion in 2014 to 1.54 billion in 2019, while iOS shipments will grow from 192.7 million in 2014 to 269.6 million in 2019. IDC’s view that Microsoft/Windows Phone will remain a marginal challenger at best has not changed.
On the device front, phablets (smartphones with 5.5″-7″ screens) will continue to drive shipment volumes in both emerging and developed markets. “Since Apple finally delivered a larger screen smartphone with the iPhone 6+, the demand for large screened devices among consumers has been at a record high,” said Anthony Scarsella, RESEARCH MANAGER with IDC’s Mobile Phones team.
“Smartphones featuring display sizes from 5.5 inches to 6 inches are forecast to grow 84percent in 2015 compared to last year, while phablets overall will make up over 71percent of shipments by 2019.” It is also worth noting that this screen size (5.5″-6″) also plays the role of having the highest average selling prices for devices throughout the forecast. IDC expects this screen size band to be the placeholder for a majority of vendors’ flagship device launches throughout the forecast period.
Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by OS, Shipments, Market Share, Growth and 5-Year CAGR (units in millions)
| Region | 2015* Shipment Volumes | 2015* Market Share | 2015* YoY Growth | 2019* Shipment Volumes | 2019* Market Share | 2019* YoY Growth | 5-Year CAGR |
| Android | 1,164.3 | 81.1percent | 9.9percent | 1,541.9 | 81.1percent | 5.0percent | 7.8percent |
| iOS | 223.7 | 15.6percent | 16.1percent | 269.6 | 14.2percent | 3.3percent | 7.0percent |
| Windows Phone | 36.9 | 2.6percent | 5.8percent | 67.8 | 3.6percent | 12.8percent | 14.2percent |
| Others | 11.5 | 0.8percent | -15.5percent | 23.0 | 1.2percent | 8.6percent | 11.0percent |
| TOTAL | 1,436.5 | 100.0percent | 10.4percent | 1,902.3 | 100.0percent | 5.1percent | 7.9percent |
* denotes forecast
